A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

论中国古代地缘战略制定中的“权衡”——以《盐铁论》为例   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

王丰龙  刘云刚 《地理科学》2019,39(9):1407-1415

《盐铁论》是记录汉朝时期关于盐铁酒榷均输及对匈奴关系的辩论的一部重要著作,能够较典型地反映中国古代地缘战略制定中的“权衡”过程。构建中国古代地缘战略制定中的“权衡”理论分析框架,继而基于该分析框架对《盐铁论》中的地缘战略辩论进行详细解读。《盐铁论》中辩论双方“权衡”的要点包含匈奴对汉朝产生的威胁程度、领土扩张所带来的收益大小和相应地缘战略的合法性3个方面。从思想、方法、目的等比较中西方地缘政治研究差异,指出“权衡”思想为西方主导的地缘政治理论提供新视角。  相似文献   

施肥对新垦绿洲风沙土肥力及碳积累的影响     

苏永中  杨荣  刘婷娜 《中国沙漠》2019,39(3):1-6

利用2005年安排在临泽边缘绿洲沙地农田的长期施肥定位试验，研究不同用量有机肥、化肥、有机肥和化肥配施对绿洲沙地土壤肥力及有机碳积累的影响。试验包括高量有机肥单施（M3），氮磷化肥单施（NP3），低、中、高量氮磷钾化肥单施（NPK1，NPK2，NPK3），及低、中、高量氮磷钾化肥配施高、中、低量有机肥9个处理（NPK1M3，NPK2M2，NPK3M1），测定分析10年后不同施肥处理耕层（0~20 cm）土壤物理化学性状特征及有机碳动态。结果表明：施有机肥及有机无机配施处理较单施化肥处理容重下降0.13 g·cm^-3，田间持水量提高6.7%，单施有机肥、有机无机配施较单施化肥，土壤有机碳（SOC）和全氮含量分别提高64.8%、36.3%和64.9%、49.5%。高量施用氮磷化肥和氮磷钾化肥处理全磷含量最高，有机肥及有机无机配施较单施化肥有效氮含量显著增加，有机无机配施及高量施用磷肥土壤有效磷积累明显，高量施用有机肥能显著提升有效钾含量。连续施肥处理10年后，SOC含量提高了1.68~2.84倍，土壤全氮、全磷、碱解氮及有效磷均有一定程度的提高，但单施化肥及有机肥与氮磷化肥配施有效钾含量下降。SOC的积累速率单施化肥、有机无机配施，单施有机肥处理分别为0.27、0.59，0.87 g·kg^-1·a^-1。增施有机肥、适量减少化肥投入、氮磷钾化肥的平衡施用是绿洲沙地农田土壤肥力持续提升的施肥管理对策。  相似文献   

Concurrent Determination of U‐Pb Age and REE Mass Fractions of Zircon by High Mass Resolution SIMS     

Yu Liu  Qiu‐Li Li  Guo‐Qiang Tang  Xian‐Hua Li 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(3):421-437

A combined geochronological and geochemical investigation for the same domain of zircon provides valuable information on timing and genesis, particularly in the case of multi‐growth metamorphic zircon. A high spatial resolution concurrent analytical method for zircon U‐Pb age and rare earth element content was successfully achieved in this study, using a multi‐collector secondary ion mass spectrometer (SIMS) at a ~ 8 μm diameter scale. Special instrument parameters were employed, including a high mass resolution of approximately 15000 applied to replace the previous energy filter method, and a dynamic multi‐collector mode used to reduce the measurement time to 18 min per analysis. Six zircon reference materials yielded precise and accurate ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages, which are comparable to those obtained by the ordinary mono‐collector method, but with 2–3 times higher spatial resolution. All zircon grains measured in this study showed enriched heavy‐REE (HREE) contents consistent with previously reported values determined by LA and solution ICP‐MS methods. The light‐REE (LREE) mass fractions measured using both SIMS and LA‐ICP‐MS methods in this study, although with quite different volume, show consistent results within uncertainties.  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

西准噶尔白杨河铍铀矿床中铍与铀成生关系初探——来自围岩蚀变和矿石矿物接触关系的证据     

刘畅 《地质与勘探》2020,56(3):465-477

与高硅富氟火成岩(流纹岩或花岗斑岩)有关的铍矿床中常伴有铀矿化,其成矿特色明显,是认识岩浆-岩浆热液-热液演化过程中铍与铀地球化学行为异同的理想对象,但其中铍与铀成矿的时空关系及成因关系尚不清楚。为了理解该类矿床中铍与铀的成生关系,并为区域内铍与铀的找矿勘查提供理论支撑,本文选取该类矿床的典型代表—西准噶尔白杨河铍铀矿床为研究对象,通过镜下观察、扫描电镜能谱和激光拉曼光谱分析,对矿区内单铍矿石、单铀矿石和铍铀矿石开展了系统的岩相和矿相学研究。结果显示,与铍矿化相关的围岩蚀变为钠长石化、电气石化、白云母化、萤石化、碳酸盐化和绿泥石化,与铀矿化相关的围岩蚀变为硅化、赤铁矿化、萤石化、伊利石化和锰矿化(含少量铅),且铍铀矿石中可见沥青铀矿切穿羟硅铍石的现象。结合铍与铀的地球化学行为和前人研究成果,认为白杨河铍铀矿床中铍矿化与铀矿化应是不同期热液作用的结果:铍矿化可能是花岗斑岩深部岩浆房分异的岩浆热液在不断演化过程中形成的,而铀矿化可能与后期流体(如幔源流体、加热循环的大气降水等)的淋滤作用有关。  相似文献   

Terraces Development and Their Implications for Valley Evolution of the Jinsha River Since Late Pleistocene near Longjie,Yunnan     

Fenliang Liu  Hongshan Gao  Zongmeng Li  Baotian Pan  Huai Su 《地球科学进展》2020,35(4):431-440

The drainage evolution and valley development of the Jinsha River is an important issue constantly concerned by researchers in geology and geomorphology. Despite hundreds of years of research, there is a big dispute on the formation time and the evolution process of the fluvial valley. Fluvial terraces are very important geomorphic markers for studying the formation and evolution of the fluvial valley. Through field investigation combined with Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) dating, we confirmed that 5 fluvial terraces were formed, and then preserved, along the course of the Jinsha River near the Longjie, which are all strath terraces. Among them, T5 developed on the base rock, with an age of (78±12) ka; all T4~T1 developed on the lacustrine sediments, named Longjie Group by Chinese, with an age of (29±1.4) ka, (26±2.4) ka, (23±1.4) ka, (18±1.7) ka, respectively. Compared with the global and regional climate change history, the terraces are all the result of the river responding to the climate change. T5 formed at MIS 5/4, and T4~T1 formed at the period of regional climate fluctuation. The relationship of terraces and the Longjie Formation, combined with sedimentary characteristics analysis demonstrate that the Longjie Formation is landslide dammed lake sediment. The landslide and blocking events.seriously influenced the valley evolution, inhibiting the river incising, and making the valley evolution defer to the mode of “cut-landside-damming-fill-cut” in the period of Late Pleistocene. Synthesized studies of the terraces and the correlative sediments indicate that the formation of the Jinsha River valley may have begun in the late Early Pleistocene.  相似文献   

综合电法勘探在西秦岭寨上金矿的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘诚 《地质与勘探》2020,56(6):1226-1237

寨上金矿处于西秦岭岷-礼成矿带西端，是我国重要的卡林—类卡林型金矿床。以查明寨上金矿深部地质结构，确定找矿方向，总结成矿规律为目的，梳理近年来开展过的激发极化法、连续电导率剖面测量(EH4)、可控源音频大地电磁测量等地球物理勘探方法，通过与已知钻孔剖面的对比研究，基本查明了寨上金矿深部地质结构电性分布特征以及适用于西秦岭同类型矿床的物探综合电法找矿标志。此外基于地球物理成果，对研究区成矿机制及动力学模型进行梳理，为下一步指导深部勘查奠定了基础。  相似文献   

中国陆相油页岩含油率与总有机碳的响应机理     

贾建亮  刘招君  孟庆涛  孙平昌  徐进军  柳蓉  白悦悦 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(2):368-377

为了建立稳定可靠的利用油页岩总有机碳预测含油率的模型，揭示中国陆相不同成因类型油页岩含油率与总有机碳的内在关系极其重要。通过不同类型盆地油页岩钻井取心测试的关键参数，结合沉积学、有机地球化学、热模拟等学科技术，探讨油页岩含油率与总有机碳的响应机理。结果表明：不同盆地类型与沉积背景下发育的油页岩含油率与总有机碳质量分数均呈现良好的正相关性（R²=0.81~0.97）；中国陆相油页岩的成因类型进一步划分为5种类型，制约着含油率与总有机碳的内在关系；油页岩的升温加热模拟呈现3个失重阶段（温度<150、300~550、600~750℃），明确了含油率与总有机碳参数的物理意义；相同类型盆地与沉积背景下形成的油页岩具有相近的母质生源组合，从而具有大致相当的再生烃效率。中国陆相油页岩成因类型的细划、含油率与总有机碳物理意义的明确、油页岩再生烃能力的分析，有助于理解中国陆相油页岩含油率与总有机碳的内在响应关系。  相似文献   

The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia     

Liu  Qionghuan  Zhang  Yili  Liu  Linshan  Li  Lanhui  Qi  Wei 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(11):1841-1858

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia, incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS), Global Land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30), MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1), Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), University of Maryland (UMD), and GlobCover 2009 (Glob-Cover). We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data sources. We then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy variation. The results of this study reveal that distinct differences, even inverse time series trends, in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015, with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven datasets. We also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns, that is, high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern regions. The overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%, and the GlobeLand30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts, yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%, respectively. Finally, 5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values, mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau, while most low accuracy regions are found in northern, northeastern, and western regions.

  相似文献